Azerbaijan could say ‘no’ to Nabucco?
Azerbaijan could export its gas to European markets by routes other than the Nabucco pipeline that “offer better conditions”, head of the state energy firm Socar has said. “Anything can happen, there are a lot of projects and we can’t set any of them aside,” SOCAR mentioned. “Along with other routes, the Nabucco project participants are deliberating on their terms and proposals. We will choose from among those [proposals].”
Azerbaijan has begun selecting a route for the supply of gas to be produced during the second stage of developing Shahdaniz, the country’s largest gas field in the Caspian Sea.
According to projections, production will be brought up to 25 billion cubic meters per year under the second stage of Shahdaniz development, which is expected to produce first gas in 2017. The Shahdaniz field holds estimated reserves of 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas.
The 3,300-kilometer Nabucco pipeline will carry up to 31 billion cubic meters a year of gas from the Caspian region and the Middle East across Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey into southeast Europe and onwards to an Austrian trading hub, bypassing Russia. According to the pipeline consortium, construction is due to start in 2013 and operations in 2017.
Reports say projected investment in the 7.9 billion euro pipeline has been revised up to 12-15 billion euros. The project's participants include the Austrian OMV, Hungarian MOL, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas and German RWE. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq are potential suppliers for the Nabucco pipeline.
Meanwhile, Vugar Bayramov, the chairman of Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) says, Azerbaijan has doubled the exports of natural gas to Russia but in the language of numbers this means that Azerbaijan has stepped up the exports to Russia from 0.5 bn m3 to 1 bn m3. 'Though the export of natural gas to Russia is widely regarded as Russia's attempt at putting a lid on the Nabucco Project, in reality Azerbaijan is actually putting pressure on the West in this way. Specifically, Azerbaijan has demonstrated that it does have alternatives when it comes to exporting its gas. At any rate, Nabucco will only be there in 2015 but Azerbaijan cannot reign in production of gas until then, can it? This is why the "blue fuel" is exported to Russia, Iran and other countries,' Mr Bayramov said
Center for Economic and Social Developmet Azerbaijan
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