Experts forecast 20% growth of industrial production in 2008
Moldovan industry may register 20% growth this year, stated economic analyst Igor Prohnitchi, on Tuesday during the presentation of the last issue of Economic Reality publication edited by the Independent Analytic Centre Expert-Grup.
According to Prohnitchi, such an evolution of the industry is possibly in case of favorable climate, constant flow of wine exports to Russia and as a result of using the opportunities offered by the Autonomous Trade Preferences provided by the EU to Moldovan companies.
The expert says that statistics for March-April 2008 show that Grecianii Government inherited from the former one headed by Tarlev an economy that is recovering from the shocks in 2006-2007, but which is exposed to major macroeconomic risks. Some risks can be managed by means of the tools of the internal economic policy, while others are of a global nature and beyond the area of influence of the national authorities, Prohnitchi says.
According to Expert-Grup, the annual advance of 20% is very possible, because over the first two months of this year industry took to a strong ascending trend, registering 9.6% growth.
According to expert estimations, in March industry speeded up the growth up to about 11%, and this process will go on in the nearest future too. At the same time, Expert-Grup says that the growth will regard more the return to the absolute volume of industrial production which will not exceed the registered historical limits.
The analysis conducted by the publication shows that the inflation is still the most significant risk for the economy in the medium term. Experts say that although in March prices raised less than in February, in annual terms it reaches 15.4% hitting the highest point since December 2003. With a price raise by over 4% in the first quarter, the inflationist forecasts are very likely to be revised by the IMF and Government for the second and third quarters of the year. For 2008 Economic Reality experts also forecast an increase of the remittances up to 1.6 bn USD. According to the analysis conducted by the publication, such developments are likely, because in January-February 2008 the remittances registered an increase by 48% against the similar period last year. // BASA-Press
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