Experts interpret differently amendments to budget
Economic analysts appreciated differently the amendments made by the Government into the Law on the 2010 State Budget, increasing revenues by 1,012 million lei, and the expenses - by 263.7 million lei, mostly to reduce the deficit.
The experts don't prejudice making positive premises to increase profits in the first quarter: an increase of GDP by 4.7%, of exports - by 11.2%, of imports by 6.1%, of industrial production - by 5.5% and inflation - by 7.9%. However, they think the most important are not the premises or sources of increased revenues, but the way they are going to be used.
Economist Nathan Garstea approved the Government's decision to keep, on Ministry of Finance's balance, 460 million lei from the initially planned figure of 748.7 million lei to cover the budget deficit.
"In the conditions of instability and crisis, the Government must retain for itself a certain reserve of maneuverability. Besides, Moldova is threatened by floods, and that means the state reserve must contain some funds", he explained.
Ex-Minister of Economics Igor Dodon, on the contrary, thinks that by preserving, on Ministry of Finance's balance, more than a half of funds intended for covering the deficit, the Government protects the interests of the International Monetary Fund and other external creditors, not the interests of the national economy.
"The Government has decided to increase expenditures by 263.7 million lei and to give only 29 million lei from that sum to the farm sector and only 12 million lei to capital investments. I just cannot provide any comments here", he said.
Viorel Kivriga, an agricultural management expert from the IDIS-Viitorul Institute for Development and Social Initiatives, shared this opinion by noting that "such a miserable amount won't help to the agri-industrial sector".
"I guess it would be much better to save these crumbs for other purposes. As for the system of subsidies, it should revised completely, so that we could enter next year with a viable solution to the financial support of farmers", he added.
Some analysts are wondering why against the background of export growth by 11.2%, the state is reducing the planned refunding of the VAT by 61 million lei, and why with an expected GDP growth by 2.5% by end of year, the revenue projections from the VAT have been reduced by 155.9 million lei. They were also surprised to see an increase of revenues by 26 million lei from excise taxes on dome and imported cigarettes - from the overall growth excises by 45 million lei. They are ruling out completely that the growth may be caused by the Moldovans' becoming heavier smokers.
The government also hopes to obtain additional revenues to the budget at the expense of the tax on business income (94.7 million lei), VAT on imports (425.6 million lei), the tax on foreign trade (81 million lei), the net balance profit of the National Bank of Moldova for 2009 (336.6 million lei), other sources (47 million lei).
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