Year 2009 – gravest economic recession in Moldova’s history?
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has recently published statistics on evolution of GDP in the 1st quarter of 2009, which revealed a fall of about 7 percent. Anyway, 2009 will certainly be the year of the deepest economic recession after 1991, shall similar economic trends be further recorded (inclusively at the end of this year) or the least will follow the same way like in the 1st quarter. An almost similar fall of the Gross Domestic Product (by 6.5 percent) was recorded in 1998, the year of the financial default in Russia, which seriously hit Moldova as well. Almost all economic indicators except for agriculture (+3 percent) have declined much, being particularly influenced by two factors. The first is the fall of internal consumption demand, both of private and public (governmental) consumption and the second one is the dramatic fall of the demand for Moldovan exports, or the external trade of the country counts for more than 140 percent of GDP.
The industry recession, by 24 percent, hit the GDP the most. But the dramatic decline of [construction] sector by more than 30 percent had the most serious impact. However, there is no connection between the economic crisis and the political crisis faced by Moldova, the way other economists said, as the economic crisis began long before the political crisis. Perhaps, the decline would not have been so serious, should authorities got involved in the due time and were not concerned with other problems but economic.
At the same time, the report released in early June by the British Group EIU described a worse situation for Moldova than in March 2009, while it covers the developments from April, in particular the economic and social trends of the country. The report presents a situation like the one described by NBS recently. Almost all economic indicators are on the decline, both imports and exports have decreased much because of the consumption, and therefore, lower collections go to the budget; remittances have decreased much, the productive sector which already faces a very difficult condition is "folded" by the appreciation of the leu versus dollar, and this hardens more the promotion of products on foreign markets, while the external and internal debts have increased much, with the rise of the first being linked to debts of the private sector, and this situation could make the country incapable to pay external debts.
Association for Participatory Democracy "ADEPT"
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