The risks that the Moldovan economy is affected by the world financial crisis are minimal, the survey International Financial Crisis: the Impact on the World and Moldova’s Economy shows, realized Expert Grup.
The national economy cannot be seriously affected by the crisis, following the small number of foreign investors, whose shares are evaluated at the international financial stock, and only two local companies are EU stock-listed, according to the analysis made by Expert Grup.
The danger is quite small, in line with the reduced currency value of the economy in Moldova, lack of a developed capital market, the limited integration of the national financial fluxes on the international markets, as well as the weak inter-dependence of the supply and demand of capital with the foreign financial market, the experts say. At the same time, the survey stresses an increase of the money quantity in the private sector and of the population, in euro, as well as much more severe bank loan conditions against those from the EU and USA.
On the other hand, the overestimated exchange rate reveals the scope and depth of the structural lack of poise in the Moldovan economy, in conditions when the exports are twice lower than the imports, according to the survey. Thanks to the increasing trade with the EU, as well as to the depreciation of the USD, the weight of the US currency on the internal market diminished, while the high value of the exchange market reveals the increasing volume of the returns from remittances, transferred via commercial banks, often exchanged into cash, as well as its exchange into currency, having entered from abroad, according to Expert Grup.
In conditions of the USD depreciation, and the difficulties the US economy meets, the Moldovan authorities, are to contribute, through the monetary policy, to reducing the monetary uncertainty and to creating new favourable conditions for the economic development, and, at the same time, a possibility of defence against the economic risks, the main goal being to enhance the currency reserves and diversify them, the experts say.
The key-measures are: to evaluate the potential losses, according to the forecast of the dynamics of the exchange rates so that to take decisions due to the opportunities of currency hedging expenses, to realize such a fiscal and monetary policy that would allow the companies have financial resources due to the external economic risks, as well as to diversify the international currency reserves by diminishing the weight of the USD, according to Expert Grup.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has recently reduced by 0.6%, down to 5.5%, the prognostication of the economic growth in 2008 for the CIS states, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The re-evaluation was made following the crisis that affected the world financial system. Even the region is doing quite well, it will be affected by the consequences of the world crisis, according to EBRD.
The economy in this region continues to develop quickly, as it has a solid ground, the EBRD head-economist has said. The crisis of USA has little influence on the ex-Soviet countries and Eastern Europe following their reduced dependence on the commercial relationships with USA.  // BASA-Press



Publication date: 24 January 2008   

Source:

Archive